full time
Qatar1–1Switzerland
Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Switzerland to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1569-62 this year
1631 → 1569 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
56thdown 1 place on the latest list
54th → 56th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1962+77 this year
1885 → 1962 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
19thheld on the latest list
17th → 19th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Switzerland by 393 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Qatar took it.
1 prior meeting · Qatar 1, drawn 0, Switzerland 0 · goals 1-0
- 2018Switzerland 0-1 Qatar· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Switzerland the stronger side, and seal the call at about 8 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -394 edge into 8% / 17% / 75% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Qatar
0.6
expected goals
Switzerland
2.0
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–214 in 100
- 0–114 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–39 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Qatar 14 in 100, Switzerland 53 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Switzerland win on the road.✗ wrong
- Switzerland win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Switzerland keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Qatar4-3-3
- 1Mahmud AbunadG1461
- 13Ayoub Al OuiD~1506 provisional
- 2Pedro MiguelD1530
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD1549
- 14Homam Al-AminD1543
- 5Jassem Gaber AbdulsallamM1506
- 23Assim MadiboM1516
- 4Issa LayeM1501
- 8Edmilson JuniorF1615
- 15Yusuf AbdurisagF1504
- 11Akram AfifF1643
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Meshaal BarshamG~1531 provisional
- 21Salah ZakariaG1514
- 3Lucas MendesD1606
- 18Sultan Al-BrakeD1502
- 25Al-Hashmi Al-HussainD~1521 provisional
- 6Abdelaziz HatemM1493
- 17Ahmed Al-GanehiF1587
- 20Ahmed FathiM1466
- 12Karim BoudiafM1485
- 26Mohamed Naceur AlmanaiM1510
- 19Almoez AliF1606
- 9Mohammed MuntariF1497
- 24Tahsin Mohammed JamshidF1471
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF1546
- 7Ahmed AlaaeldinF1523
Switzerland3-4-2-1
- 1Gregor KobelG1947
- 6Denis ZakariaD1789
- 5Manuel AkanjiD1925
- 4Nico ElvediD1728
- 20Michel AebischerM1545
- 8Remo FreulerM1726
- 10Granit XhakaM1792
- 13Ricardo RodríguezM1763
- 11Dan NdoyeF1919
- 17Rubén VargasF1739
- 7Breel EmboloF1873
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Yvon MvogoG1736
- 21Marvin KellerG1560
- 25Luca JaquezD1846
- 18Eray CömertD1774
- 24Aurèle AmendaD1735
- 15Djibril SowM1698
- 22Fabian RiederM1756
- 9Johan ManzambiM1800
- 3Silvan WidmerD1788
- 2Miro MuheimD1714
- 16Christian FassnachtM1554
- 14Ardon JashariM1810
- 26Cédric IttenF1620
- 23Zeki AmdouniF1711
- 19Noah OkaforF1898
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 13 Jun 2026 18:14:49 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Qatar 1-1 Switzerland
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Switzerland to win at 75%, about 8 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Qatar 1-1 Switzerland: the draw, an outcome we had at 17 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Switzerland win on the road.
- Switzerland win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Switzerland keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Qatar +24 and Switzerland -24.
On our player board, the squads moved Qatar +53 (15 appearances) · Switzerland -36 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -394 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 8/17/75 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Switzerland · 75%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Qatar v Switzerland before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.