Arda Guler

Midfield, Turkey

Club football at Real Madrid CF.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
20
sourced with the squad
position
Midfield
Turkey
club
Real Madrid CF
football-data.org
club tier
1923
ClubElo strength
our board
#127
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
2066′
29 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
90.00
100th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Goals for Turkey, on the record and counted.

goals
1
assists
0

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad: Turkey · Midfieldfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: Real Madrid CFfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1939 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1944 full roster Elo (+5 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1956 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the midfield age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Turkey's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1880
age curve at 20 (midfields' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior: -11
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +70
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1939
form: national-team results, 29 appearances2066 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +5
full roster Elo · with results: 1944

Where the +70 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 90.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 100th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(99.9th) = 46 × 3.04 × 0.5 (position weight) = +70

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-26. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#127 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€28m–€111m ≈ €56m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1923the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×5.03
ageage 20, the resale premium a club pays for the years to come: ×1.32
midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×0.90
individual skillmeasured 82th percentile of peers: ×1.31
our estimate: ≈ €56m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €20m (2023-07). Our estimate today: ≈ €56m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: undervalued , we rate him 181% above his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

2023-07-07Fenerbahce → Real Madrid€20m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Turkey’s record

v USA3–2Missed it
v Paraguay0–1Missed it
at Australia2–0Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Turkey. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.