Pavel Šulc

1775 full roster Elo (−8 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1782 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the midfield age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Czech Republic's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1753

age curve at 25 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-14

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+43

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1783

form: national-team results, 21 appearances1501 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

-8

full roster Elo · with results

1775

Where the +43 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

20.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

97th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(97.1th) = 46 × 1.89 × 0.5 (position weight) = +43

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-12. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.