Nikola Vasilj

Club football at FC St. Pauli 1910.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
30
sourced with the squad
position
Goalkeeper
Bosnia & Herzegovina
club
FC St. Pauli 1910
football-data.org
club tier
1533
ClubElo strength
our board
#1127
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
2220′
24 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
4.50
88th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: Bosnia & Herzegovina · Goalkeeperfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: FC St. Pauli 1910football-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1586 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1559 full roster Elo (−27 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1562 ±45 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the goalkeeper age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Bosnia & Herzegovina's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1565
age curve at 30 (goalkeepers' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -6
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +27
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1586
form: national-team results, 24 appearances2220 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: -27
full roster Elo · with results: 1559

Where the +27 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 4.50 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 88th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(88.0th) = 46 × 1.17 × 0.5 (position weight) = +27

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-24. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#1127 of 1424 rated players on our board.
vs his seed
The folded nights have cost him 27 points off his seed, kept on the record, like everything.
workload
He barely leaves the pitch: 93′ a night across 24 folded appearances.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€2m–€7.7m ≈ €3.9m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1533the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×1.12
ageage 30, in the fee-peak window (27–30): ×1.00
goalkeeper fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×0.43
individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide: ×1.00
our estimate: ≈ €3.9m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

In our coverage · Bosnia & Herzegovina’s record

at USASealed
v Qatar3–1Called it
at Switzerland4–1Called it
at Canada1–1Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Bosnia & Herzegovina. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.