Shadow scorecard

Two forecasting arms price every Premier League fixture through the same probability map, before kickoff, and the season grades them on the same results. The only difference between them is the club strength they believe: the sourced ClubElo badge rating, or the best XI off our player board. A lock is immutable; a missed fixture stays ungraded forever; a uniform floor sits underneath so either arm scoring worse than knowing nothing shows up as exactly that.

No locks yet

The ledger fills when the season's first lock pass runs (fixtures price inside a 48-hour pre-kickoff window). Until then there is nothing to show, because nothing has been called.

The promotion gate, pre-registered

The squad xi challenger may feed the live projection only when, over at least 150 graded fixtures, its cumulative mean log loss is strictly below the baseline's AND a paired bootstrap over rounds puts zero outside the 90% confidence interval of the per-match difference. These thresholds were fixed in the design doc before the first lock existed and are never adjusted after it; promotion itself is a separate reviewed event. Arms: clubelo / squad / uniform. Full method in the repo: docs/pl-projection/shadow-challenger.md.