full time
Switzerland2–0Algeria
Called it. As forecast.
Switzerland to win
sealed Wed 1 Jul · 19:43 UTC · 21:43 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:43:47 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2005+84 this year
1921 → 2005 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
19thheld on the latest list
17th → 19th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1858+45 this year
1813 → 1858 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
28thheld on the latest list
34th → 28th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Switzerland by 147 points
Head to head
Switzerland have had the better of this fixture.
3 prior meetings · Switzerland 3, drawn 0, Algeria 0 · goals 6-1
- 2026Switzerland 2-0 Algeria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 1986Switzerland 2-0 Algeria· Friendly
- 1983Algeria 1-2 Switzerland· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Switzerland the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +97 edge into 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Switzerland
1.5
expected goals
Algeria
1.1
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–010 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Switzerland 33 in 100, Algeria 23 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Switzerland win at home.✓ right
- No blowout: Switzerland win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Switzerland4-2-3-1
- 1Gregor KobelG2046
- 6Denis ZakariaD1799
- 4Nico ElvediD~1780 provisional
- 5Manuel AkanjiD1969
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD~1791 provisional
- 8Remo FreulerM1786
- 10Granit XhakaM2003
- 11Dan NdoyeM1886
- 9Johan ManzambiM~1812 provisional
- 17Rubén VargasM1762
- 7Breel EmboloF~1938 provisional
7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Yvon MvogoG~1754 provisional
- 21Marvin KellerG~1552 provisional
- 18Eray CömertD~1789 provisional
- 24Aurèle AmendaD1738
- 3Silvan WidmerD1735
- 2Miro MuheimD1697
- 16Christian FassnachtM~1554 provisional
- 14Ardon JashariM1835
- 15Djibril SowM1668
- 22Fabian RiederM1765
- 20Michel AebischerM1604
- 26Cédric IttenF1603
- 19Noah OkaforF~1941 provisional
- 23Zeki AmdouniF1690
Algeria4-2-3-1
- 23Luca ZidaneG~1549 provisional
- 17Rafik BelghaliD~1540 provisional
- 2Aïssa MandiD1764
- 21Ramy BensebainiD1963
- 15Rayan Aït-NouriD1952
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM1702
- 19Nabil BentalebM~1778 provisional
- 7Riyad MahrezM1672
- 8Houssem AouarM1655
- 10Farès ChaïbiM1731
- 22Ibrahim MazaF~1864 provisional
7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Melvin MastilG~1563 provisional
- 16Oussama BenbotG~1570 provisional
- 3Achref AbadaD~1594 provisional
- 4Mohamed TougaiD~1596 provisional
- 5Zineddine BelaidD~1606 provisional
- 13Jaouen HadjamD~1580 provisional
- 26Samir Sophian CherguiD~1703 provisional
- 20Adil BoulbinaF~1582 provisional
- 11Anis Hadj MoussaF1677
- 14Hicham BoudaouiM1630
- 24Yassine TitraouiM~1615 provisional
- 9Amine GouiriF1804
- 25Farès GhedjemisF~1568 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 03 Jul 2026 02:21:21 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 10'B. Embologoalassist J. Manzambi
- 46'D. Ndoyegoal
- 58'J. Hadjam for H. Aouarsub
- 58'A. Gouiri for R. Zerroukisub
- 71'F. Rieder for R. Vargassub
- 71'N. Okafor for J. Manzambisub
- 71'A. Hadj Moussa for R. Mahrezsub
- 71'H. Boudaoui for N. Bentalebsub
- 82'A. Boulbina for R. Belghalisub
- 83'Z. Amdouni for B. Embolosub
- 87'S. Widmer for D. Zakariasub
- 87'M. Aebischer for D. Ndoyesub
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 03 Jul 2026 12:11:39 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Switzerland 2-0 Algeria
- Verdict
- right but lucky
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Switzerland to win at 48%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Switzerland 2-0 Algeria: the Switzerland win, an outcome we had at 48 in 100.
The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- No blowout: Switzerland win by a single goal at most, if at all.
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Switzerland +25 and Algeria -25.
On our player board, the squads moved Switzerland +210 (16 appearances) · Algeria -173 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +97 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 48/25/27 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Switzerland · 48%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Switzerland v Algeria before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.