full time
Morocco4–2Haiti
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 71,000 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Morocco to win
sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2027+118 this year
1909 → 2027 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
7thup 1 place on the latest list
11th → 7th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1658+35 this year
1623 → 1658 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
83rdheld on the latest list
84th → 83rd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Morocco by 369 points
How we got hereWe make Morocco the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +341 edge into 71% / 19% / 10% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Morocco
1.9
expected goals
Haiti
0.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–013 in 100
- 2–013 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–19 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Morocco 49 in 100, Haiti 15 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Morocco win at home.✓ right
- Morocco win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Morocco keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Morocco4-2-3-1
- 1Yassine BounouG1773
- 2Achraf HakimiD2090
- 25Redouane HalhalD~1628 provisional
- 18Chadi RiadD~1889 provisional
- 26Anass Salah-EddineD1845
- 4Sofyan AmrabatM1787
- 24Neil El AynaouiM1903
- 10Brahim DíazM2052
- 11Ismael SaibariM1987
- 23Bilal El KhannoussM1911
- 20Ayoub El KaabiF~1752 provisional
8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Munir El KajouiG~1603 provisional
- 22Ahmed Reda TagnaoutiG~1599 provisional
- 3Noussair MazraouiD2005
- 5Marwane SaadaneDunrated
- 13Zakaria El OuahdiD1672
- 14Issa DiopD~1887 provisional
- 19Youssef BelammariD~1619 provisional
- 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1866
- 7Chemsdine TalbiF1831
- 8Azzedine OunahiM1857
- 15Samir El MourabetM~1839 provisional
- 16Gessime YassineF1750
- 17Amine SbaiFunrated
- 9Soufiane RahimiF1677
- 21Ayoube Amaimouni EchghouyabF~1733 provisional
Haiti4-4-2
- 1Johny PlacideG~1454 provisional
- 22Jean-Kévin DuverneD~1583 provisional
- 4Ricardo AdéD~1624 provisional
- 5Hannes DelcroixD~1501 provisional
- 8Martin ExpérienceD~1525 provisional
- 21Josué CasimirM~1457 provisional
- 17Danley Jean JacquesM~1473 provisional
- 10Jean-Ricner BellegardeM1632
- 15Ruben ProvidenceM~1507 provisional
- 18Wilson IsidorF~1831 provisional
- 16Lenny JosephF~1507 provisional
1 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Alexandre PierreG~1519 provisional
- 23Josué DuvergerG~1516 provisional
- 2Carlens ArcusD~1576 provisional
- 3Keeto ThermoncyD~1511 provisional
- 14Garven-Michee MetusalaDunrated
- 13Duke LacroixD~1534 provisional
- 6Carl Fred SaintéM~1537 provisional
- 24Wilguens PaugainD~1558 provisional
- 26Woodensky PierreM~1524 provisional
- 25Dominique SimonM~1535 provisional
- 7Derrick EtienneF~1517 provisional
- 20Frantzdy PierrotF1517
- 11Louicius Don DeedsonF~1534 provisional
- 19Yassin FortuneF~1526 provisional
- 9Duckens NazonF~1547 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:19 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 10'Bonogoal (o.g.)
- 39'A. Hakimigoal
- 43'W. Isidorgoalassist J. Duverne
- 45+1'I. Saibarigoalassist A. Hakimi
- 67'D. Nazon for R. Providencesub
- 67'L. Deedson for W. Isidorsub
- 70'A. Ounahi for B. Diazsub
- 70'S. Rahimi for I. Saibarisub
- 70'G. Yassine for A. El Kaabisub
- 78'S. Rahimigoalassist C. Riad
- 80'C. Arcus for J. Duvernesub
- 80'D. Simon for D. Jean Jacquessub
- 83'N. Mazraoui for A. Salah-Eddinesub
- 83'S. El Mourabet for N. El Aynaouisub
- 83'F. Pierrot for L. Josephsub
- 89'G. Yassinegoalassist S. Rahimi
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:06:00 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Morocco 4-2 Haiti
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Morocco to win at 71%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Morocco 4-2 Haiti: the Morocco win, an outcome we had at 71 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Morocco keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Morocco +11 and Haiti -11.
On our player board, the squads moved Morocco +136 (16 appearances) · Haiti -107 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +341 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 71/19/10 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Morocco · 71%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Morocco v Haiti before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.