full time
Jordan1–2Algeria
Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Algeria to win
sealed Sun 21 Jun · 19:20 UTC · 21:20 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:20:47 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1720-28 this year
1748 → 1720 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
63rdheld on the latest list
64th → 63rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1858+45 this year
1813 → 1858 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
28thheld on the latest list
34th → 28th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Algeria by 138 points
Head to head
Algeria have had the better of this fixture.
3 prior meetings · Jordan 0, drawn 1, Algeria 2 · goals 2-9
- 2026Jordan 1-2 Algeria· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2004Algeria 1-1 Jordan· Friendly
- 1974Algeria 6-0 Jordan· Kuneitra Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Algeria the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -124 edge into 25% / 25% / 51% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Jordan
1.1
expected goals
Algeria
1.5
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–111 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–29 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Jordan 22 in 100, Algeria 34 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Algeria win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Algeria win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Jordan3-4-2-1
- 1Yazeed Abu LailaG~1470 provisional
- 3Abdallah NasibD~1531 provisional
- 5Yazan Al-ArabD~1540 provisional
- 4Husam Ali Mohammad AbudahabDunrated
- 23Ehsan HaddadM~1504 provisional
- 21Nizar Al-RashdanM~1530 provisional
- 8Noor Al-RawabdehM~1522 provisional
- 20Mohannad Abu TahaM~1510 provisional
- 13Mahmoud Al-MardiF~1498 provisional
- 9Ali OlwanF~1508 provisional
- 10Mousa TamariF~1649 provisional
0 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Noureddin ZaidG~1549 provisional
- 22Abdallah Al-FakhouriG~1516 provisional
- 16Mo AbualnadiD~1509 provisional
- 2Mohammad Ali HasheeshD~1545 provisional
- 17Saleem ObaidD~1506 provisional
- 19Saad Al RousanDunrated
- 26Anas BadawiD~1549 provisional
- 18Mohammad Abu GhoushDunrated
- 6Amer JamousM~1538 provisional
- 14Rajaei AyedM~1513 provisional
- 15Ibrahim SadehMunrated
- 25Mohammad Al DaoudM~1510 provisional
- 7Mohammad Abu ZrayqF~1548 provisional
- 24Ali Al AzaizahF~1488 provisional
- 11Odeh FakhouryFunrated
Algeria4-3-3
- 23Luca ZidaneG~1549 provisional
- 17Rafik BelghaliD~1540 provisional
- 2Aïssa MandiD1764
- 21Ramy BensebainiD1963
- 15Rayan Aït-NouriD1952
- 14Hicham BoudaouiM1630
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM1702
- 22Ibrahim MazaM~1864 provisional
- 7Riyad MahrezF1672
- 9Amine GouiriF1804
- 10Farès ChaïbiF1731
8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Melvin MastilG~1563 provisional
- 16Oussama BenbotG~1570 provisional
- 3Achref AbadaD~1594 provisional
- 4Mohamed TougaiD~1596 provisional
- 5Zineddine BelaidD~1606 provisional
- 13Jaouen HadjamD~1580 provisional
- 26Samir Sophian CherguiD~1703 provisional
- 8Houssem AouarM1655
- 19Nabil BentalebM~1778 provisional
- 24Yassine TitraouiM~1615 provisional
- 11Anis Hadj MoussaF1677
- 20Adil BoulbinaF~1582 provisional
- 12Ahmed Nadhir BenboualiF~1584 provisional
- 25Farès GhedjemisF~1568 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 02:32:34 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 36'N. Al Rashdangoalassist M. Tamari
- 46'N. Bentaleb for R. Zerroukisub
- 46'N. Benbouali for H. Boudaouisub
- 69'N. Benboualigoalassist R. Mahrez
- 76'A. Hadj Moussa for R. Mahrezsub
- 76'O. Al Fakhouri for M. Al Mardisub
- 82'A. Gouirigoal
- 84'A. Azaizeh for M. Tamarisub
- 85'M. Abu Hasheesh for M. Abu Tahasub
- 85'J. Hadjam for R. Ait-Nourisub
- 86'Z. Belaid for A. Gouirisub
- 90+1'S. Obaid for H. Abu Dahabsub
- 90+2'Shararh for A. Olwansub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 07:12:47 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Jordan 1-2 Algeria
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Algeria to win at 51%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Jordan 1-2 Algeria: the Algeria win, an outcome we had at 51 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Jordan -17 and Algeria +17.
On our player board, the squads moved Jordan -95 (13 appearances) · Algeria +145 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -124 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 25/25/51 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Algeria · 51%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Jordan v Algeria before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.